The statistics suggest a clear-cut formula for beating Texas: Throw deep. But Texas A&M has done very little of that this season.
The last 13 touchdown passes surrendered by the Longhorns averaged 30.5 yards. Kansas State threw for three scores of at least 30 yards in its 45-42 upset victory.
In the Aggies' seven Big 12 games, though, they have completed only nine passes of at least 30 yards. One of those came on the final play against Texas Tech when all the Red Raiders cared about was keeping A&M out of the end zone.
Two were halfback passes. Most of the long gains on throws by quarterback Stephen McGee were the result of receivers gaining yards after the catch, not deep routes.
Against Kansas, the only Big 12 team with a pass defense ranked lower than the Longhorns', McGee was 18-of-35 passing for 165 yards through the first 56 1/2 minutes. The offense, meanwhile, was inconsistent. But on the Aggies' final drive, when he had to throw, McGee was 7-of-10 for 75 yards in leading A&M to the winning touchdown.
Q: It has been obvious for the last two years that our offensive and defensive lines are not of the same caliber as those on the top of Big 12 rankings. I don't blame Dennis Franchione for not running Jorvorskie Lane at the 2-yard line. Fran knew the odds favored another approach. All of this leads up to the question of what is the outlook (other than maturity) for better line play next year?
Tom Brents
COHEN: The lines actually did a very good job against Oklahoma and Texas at the end of last year, raising hopes for this season. I think sometimes people have unrealistic expectations when it comes to line play, though. Against opponents with strong lines, even the best unit in the country probably isn't going to dominate. As far as the argument that an inferior line precluded A&M from running Lane on those two third-and-2 situations, if that's the concern, is it any better to have that same line trying to protect the quarterback on a pass play? Maturity is the main reason to believe the lines will be better next year. Four starters return on offense, three on defense. Having a healthy Yemi Babalola on offense and a healthy Red Bryant on defense for the entire season would help, too.
Q: Even under R.C. Slocum, the Aggies often were prone to slow starts, which often came back to haunt them, as many fast-starting teams scored early and hung on in the fourth quarter to win. Is this a mindset with some teams? Is it possible to coach them out of it?
Chic Anderson
COHEN: Slow starts can certainly become a sort of mental block for a team that experiences several in a row. Coaches may try different play-calling or preparation techniques to attempt to snap their squad out of it. The counterargument is putting too much emphasis on the problem might actually get the players thinking about it too much and increase the chances of it happening again.
Q: Why is it that A&M always has such a tough run of opponents at the end of the season? One tough loss turns into a second tough loss, which then just brings the team down going into the final game against UT. How much control does A&M have over its Big 12 schedule? A better setup to me at least would be to play Tech early, OU middle, and then Texas last, with games against teams like Colorado, Oklahoma State, Baylor, etc. interspersed. Obviously, the quality of the teams can be hard to predict, but we always seem to face an awful stretch in November.
Nick
COHEN: With the Aggies always playing UT in November, as long as the Longhorns are a national power, at least one-third of that month's schedule is going to be tough every year. The Big 12 tries to avoid having the North and South division teams face each other after the first weekend in November because the conference doesn't want a rematch in the championship game of a recently played contest. As long as the South remains stronger than the North, that will make for more difficult Novembers for A&M. Big 12 officials say that beyond that consideration and rivalry games, the schedule is random. The conference, not schools, controls it.
Q: Will the Aggies' offensive line be able to stop UT's pass rush? Do you believe Fran will attempt to use the pass to set up the run, or vice versa? Are the Aggie corners good enough to effectively cover UT's receiving corps? What poses a greater threat to A&M, the Longhorns' pass or run attack? Will the J-Train have more than 10 carries?
Gabriel Hidalgo
COHEN: UT's pass rush has been strong overall but the Longhorns didn't create much pressure at Kansas State, a factor in the loss. A&M has been using a lot of quick throws this year, anyway, which minimizes defenders' chances of reaching McGee before he passes. Considering UT's recent struggles against the pass, you'd have to think that the Aggies will try to throw to set up the run. A&M's cornerbacks have been solid this season so they should be OK. The biggest threat the Longhorns pose is probably their ability to be balanced on offense; any defense has an easier time when it knows what's coming, but it seems that's especially true for the Aggies at this stage of their development in the scheme. Considering the game plan against Nebraska and UT's success against the run, I'm predicting fewer than 10 carries for Lane but his involvement in at least one trick play.
Q: Overall, what is your assessment of the Texas A&M football program this year? Are we about where you expected us to be, ahead or behind? How big is the upcoming game with Texas? Other than playing for in-state pride, I don't sense that it is all that big since I'm hearing that whether we win or lose, we're probably going to the Alamo Bowl. Our record in Austin down through the years is abysmal, so I don't have high hopes that we'll pull one out Friday. What will it take for Coach Fran to survive after next year?
Mike Caudle
COHEN: Based on how last season went, A&M is probably ahead of expectations. The defense is competitive and while Stephen McGee, like any young quarterback, has areas he can improve in, he appears to be the long-term answer at the position. Friday's game doesn't have many tangible implications for the Aggies. Beside bragging rights, mainly it's an opportunity to post a turn-the-corner type of victory. But you're right that it probably won't affect A&M's bowl positioning. Win or lose, the Aggies appear to be slotted in relative to other Big 12 squads. In all likelihood, UT, Oklahoma and Nebraska are going to better bowls; everyone else is going worse bowls. The wildcard is the Gator Bowl. If it takes a Big 12 team, A&M probably goes to the Holiday Bowl. If not, the Aggies go to the Alamo. Next year, Franchione probably needs to win at Nebraska, Texas Tech or OU, post at least eight victories in the regular season and avoid any upset or blowout losses.
Q: When is Coach Fran going to cop to simply making coaching mistakes? Seems to me he comes up with lots of excuses (e.g., "It's tough to run between the tackles."), but seldom do I hear him say "I messed up," or "I got out-coached." Sure would be nice to hear him take some personal responsibility for the outcomes the last two games.
John P.
COHEN: For whatever reason, Franchione doesn't like to make those kinds of statements. While saying such things might ease fans' minds a little bit, I doubt it would make a whole lot of difference. Fans were going to be frustrated with the back-to-back losses to OU and Nebraska regardless. Public persona can make a small impact on a coach's success, but winning and losing is what builds perceptions.
Q: Your comparison of the Aggie teams over the past six years was interesting. It feels like this team is better than the past several years, but that could be the result of the small margins in the three losses. There are other more subtle measures including third down conversions for and against, average points per game margin, yards per carry for and against, passing efficiency for and against, time of possession, our yards of net punting, average punt return yards allowed, opponent's starting yard line after kickoff, our average punt return, our average kickoff return, etc. It seem like the Aggies are improved this year in these more subtle measures. What is your take?
Tom
COHEN: Here are all the actual numbers for some of those other categories for this season and the previous five. There are a lot of figures to digest, so to try to add a little perspective, I've also included where this year's stat ranks in comparison to those prior seasons.
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In six of the 11 categories, the 2006 team has posted the best totals in that span. It's second-best in two others.
Q: Can you name any other coaches who have had a similar track record to Coach Fran in their first four years at a major football program and eventually went on to be very successful at that same school?
JRB
COHEN: Virginia Tech's Frank Beamer was 17-26-1 in his first four seasons from 1987-80. Boston College's Tom O'Brien was 23-23 from 1997-2000 and 52-21 since. Georgia Tech's Chan Gailey was 28-22; in his fifth season this year, his team is 9-2, ranked No. 16 and playing in the ACC title game. The question is whether those programs were in comparable states when those coaches inherited them to when Franchione arrived at A&M. Answering that is crucial in evaluating Franchione's performance, but it's not easy to ascertain. Some interesting numbers, though: From 1999-2002, the Aggies were 2-8 against Nebraska, OU and UT, and 4-9 in November.
Q: I'm interested in what A&M's kicking game will look like next year. Who will be kicking off, kicking field goals and extra points and punting? Who's on scholarship and how many years of eligibility do they have left (please include any incoming players)?
Bob Locke
COHEN: Justin Brantly returns as the punter after a strong sophomore season and Matt Szymanski will presumably handle field goals and extra points after kicking off this year as a freshman. Szymanski is very talented and should be much more comfortable after struggling with placekicking earlier this season, but it's impossible to predict whether he'll be effective. Brantly and Szymanski are on scholarship; A&M does not have any commitments from kickers at the moment, and it's unlikely the Aggies will bring anyone new in next year with those two underclassmen on the roster.
Q: A&M has a lot of big-play weapons on offense, more so than any recent team. Do you think Fran is holding back the offense with his suspect play-calling? I just don't see him putting the players in the best position make big plays, or to win the game, for that matter. We have four Heisman potential players in McGee, Lane, Goodson and Bennett – it's a shame none will have a fair chance to compete for the Heisman.
Ron
COHEN: It's a little bit of a stretch to call any of those players Heisman candidates at this point of their careers. All of them, while talented and already quite productive, have areas they need to improve on before they can earn mention in such a discussion. With that said, there are times the offense seems to be less than the sum of its parts. Moving the ball hasn't been much of an issue; turning yards into points has. A&M's well-documented struggles to score from inside opponents' 20-yard lines are a major factor, and it's no secret that play-calling on that part of the field has been subject to much debate. It's especially puzzling because conventional wisdom suggests a ball-control offense would be more successful in that facet of the game than one that relies on big plays. Speaking of which, I don't think putting players in position to make big plays is the problem; it's putting them in position to make plays. Dominating time of possession has been an effective strategy for the Aggies, and all four of those young players mentioned have shown that they can turn routine plays into big gains.
Q: Has quarterback Stephen McGee lost his touch at passing to an open receiver? I have noticed the last couple of games after his concussion, he either does not see the open man downfield or he is afraid of throwing an interception.
Randy
COHEN: McGee had some accuracy issues against Nebraska, but for the most part this season his passes have had no trouble reaching the intended receiver when he's actually tried to connect with one. McGee has at times seemed too quick to scramble or throw the ball away, though that's not unusual for a young quarterback. I don't think the concussion is to blame; if anything, his passing numbers against Big 12 competition are much-improved since the second quarter of the Texas Tech game compared with before. To become an elite quarterback, McGee will need to do a better job spotting open receivers and being less hesitant to throw in certain situations. There's no guarantee he will improve, but it's certainly plausible to think he could with more experience.
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