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U.S. inflation threat worries Chinese, too
12:00 AM CDT on Tuesday, March 24, 2009
WASHINGTON – Yes, we are sinners who lived beyond our means and borrowed until the house of cards fell down. On the other side of the world, however, China was sending its savings here in a flood of temptation. The Chinese didn't want to put all that money to work. We did. We just weren't very wise about it.
While American consumers repent and rebuild their savings, the Federal Reserve and the Obama administration are trying to keep the old partnership of lender and borrower together as a means of resurrecting the financial system with massive stimulus spending.
The dialogue about this has been unusually open.
Last month, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton traveled to Beijing and assured the Chinese that buying U.S. debt is "a safe investment."
"The United States has a well-deserved financial reputation," she told Chinese television viewers.
On March 13, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told reporters he was "a little worried."
"I would like you to call on the United States to honor its word and stay a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets," Wen said at a Beijing news conference.
White House spokesman Robert Gibbs replied, "There's no safer investment in the world than in the United States."
The Chinese, thanks to their export-oriented economy, have more than $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, including $1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries and bonds issued by federal mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Any U.S. moves that weaken the value of the dollar give China's portfolio managers heartburn.
Last week, the Federal Reserve announced it was going to pump up the money supply by $1.2 trillion by buying those same types of federal debt. Foreign exchange traders, sensing inflation ahead, moved into euros, gold and other apparent havens from a weakening dollar.
White House Budget Director Peter Orszag had lunch with reporters last week and argued that China should be worried about U.S. health care inflation.
"It's one of the reasons regaining control of health care costs is so crucial," he said. "Right now, we have maneuvering room to respond [to the recession] because people have confidence in the dollar. If we let health care costs go, we have no maneuvering room. It will be much, much worse."
Economist Kathleen Cooper at Southern Methodist University's Tower Center for Political Studies found Wen's remarks intriguing.
"Warnings are important," she said.
"They worry more than anything else that the dollar will fall in value again. They certainly don't think we won't pay. We will pay. It's a question of what the value of the dollar is when it's time to pay."
Two-thirds of the U.S. economy is built around consumer spending. Since October, consumer spending has gone into decline while consumer savings have increased. That's individually wise but collectively harmful, because it weakens an economy already in a credit freeze.
The federal government and the Federal Reserve are trying to push trillions of dollars into the economy to get credit and spending moving again. Once things do get moving, however, all that cash and debt could be inflationary, weakening the dollar and the value of China's portfolio.
"Anyone looking at all the stimulus liquidity the Fed is putting into global systems has to worry about higher inflation down the way," Cooper said. "I hope the Fed is as good at pulling it out as they are putting it in."
The Chinese must be hoping as well. On Monday, Hu Xiaolian, a vice governor of the People's Bank of China, said: "Investing in American Treasuries, as an important part of our foreign exchange reserve management, will continue."
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