The top 10 percent law could still get its first major overhaul in the last hours of the legislative session this weekend. But some question whether all the debate and legislative bargaining will, in the end, change much at all.

State lawmakers may agree to cap the number of freshmen that the University of Texas at Austin must automatically admit. Right now, the campus must accept any students ranked in the top 10 percent of their high school class.

For years, critics have blasted the law, saying that other skills such as leadership and artistic ability should count along with class rank. And, they say, kids from higher-performing schools have to work harder than others to crack the top 10 percent. Supporters say the system opens the state's foremost public institution to all students at all high schools.

If the proposed cap were now in place, it would translate into the top 9 percent of last year's applicants getting in automatically, rather than the top 10 percent. As the number of applicants grew, the cutoff would get stricter.

While there would be individual winners and losers – as always in the harsh world of college admissions – UT-Austin's overall student body wouldn't change drastically in the near future, students and educators predict.

"My guess is that at the end of the day, the makeup of the campus is going to be almost identical," said Heath Einstein, an officer with the Texas Association for College Admission Counseling. Students who got into UT-Austin before will probably still get in, he said. And the same goes for those who didn't get in.

Starting with the 2011-12 school year, UT-Austin would admit only 75 percent of in-state freshmen under the top 10 law. (Last year, 80 percent of in-state freshmen benefited from the law).

Admissions officials would have discretion over the remaining spots. They could consider leadership, artistic ability and other factors besides class rank.

UT-Austin would admit the top 1 percent, then the top 2 percent and so on until it hit the 75 percent cap. Had the cap been in effect in 2008-09, the top 9 percent would have made it. But the 841 students in the 10th percent would have been out.

"I don't think there's really a winner or a loser. I think some of those 841 students could still get selected," said Keshav Rajagopalan, the outgoing president of UT-Austin's student government.

He sees one clear winner, though: "The university is going to benefit from having more control over the admissions process."

A decade ago, UT-Austin was a solid bet for most applicants – about 70 percent of them got in. Now, it's a reach – only about 45 percent of applicants were accepted for this fall.

It could get even more competitive.

"I tell you, it will make the competition to be in the top 9 percent just as strong, if not stronger," said Liz Morse, a spokeswoman for the Richardson Independent School District.

In the recession, even well-off families are looking for more affordable options, said Einstein, a counseling director at the Hockaday School in Dallas. "That's going to make UT even more attractive to students, both in-state and out-of-state," he said.

The top 10 percent law was directed at campuses such as Carter High School in Dallas, where nearly all students are black or Hispanic. Opening the door to the school's top 10 percent guaranteed that minority students could attend UT. Before the top 10 law, Carter sent one or two graduates a year to UT-Austin. Now it sends about eight a year.

The law has encouraged students to strive, Carter principal Gail-David Dupree said. "It's something to keep the kids motivated and pushing for high expectations."

He said now students would have to reach a bit higher.

Advocates of the top 10 law say it has kept UT-Austin diverse. But other tools are crucial too, educators say. Dupree credits an academic success program at Carter that helps students aim for college and learn how to apply. Its graduates have gone not only to UT-Austin, but also to places such as Dartmouth and Syracuse.

Some lawmakers and others have said the state doesn't need to have this problem.

"When we have more public research universities, this will be almost a nonissue," Rajagopalan said.

What is the "top 10 percent" law?

Why was it passed?

So what's the debate now?