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Recent history shows importance of ERA

12:28 AM CDT on Sunday, April 5, 2009

By ANTHONY ANDRO / Special Contributor to The Dallas Morning News

Wins are nice.

Strikeouts are sexy.

But there's no more telling pitching statistic than earned-run average.

Who's going to be the Cy Young winner? It's often the ERA leader. Expect to win a World Series title? Your team had better be able to post a low ERA.

Of the last 37 starters to win the Cy Young Award, 17 won the ERA title the same year.

In 15 of the last 20 years, an ERA champion in at least one league has won the Cy Young, as well. In three of those seasons, both ERA champs won the Cy Young: Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson in 1995, Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens in 1997, and Johnson and Martinez in 1999.

The Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series last year with the fourth-best ERA in the National League. Tampa Bay made it to the World Series with the second-best mark in the AL.

In the last 20 years (there was no World Series in 1994), five teams have gone on to win the Series after leading the league in ERA: the Chicago White Sox (2005), New York Yankees (1998), Atlanta Braves (1995) and Oakland Athletics (1989) and Boston Red Sox (2007).

UNDERRATED STATS

WHIP

A combination of walks and hits allowed per innings pitched. Mariano Rivera (1.0199) and Pedro Martinez (1.0512) have the lowest career WHIP among active pitchers with 1,000 innings pitched. Both are likely Hall of Famers. Nineteen of the 50 pitchers with the lowest career WHIP are in the Hall of Fame.

STRIKEOUTS PER NINE INNINGS

Some consider the strikeout an overrated statistic, but it can provide a momentum boost and save a run while a ground ball might not be able to. Randy Johnson (10.670) is the all-time leader in strikeouts per nine innings among players with 1,000 innings pitched. Pedro Martinez is No. 3 while Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax are in the top five.

PITCHES PER INNINGS

Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux preaches making as few pitches as possible. It should come as no surprise that three players with Rangers ties were among those who threw the most pitches per inning last year. Bill White was second in the majors at 29.8, Derrick Turnbow was fifth and Elizardo Ramirez was sixth.

OVERRATED STATS

QUALITY STARTS

What is quality about having an ERA of 4.50? But according to the definition of a quality start (at least six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer allowed), that's all you need. John Lannan tied for 16th in the majors with 21 quality starts last season and went 9-15. Is that anyone's definition of quality?

COMPLETE GAMES

With the emphasis on the bullpen, the complete game is going the way of the dinosaur. Ferguson Jenkins had 29 complete games for the Rangers in 1974. Since 1997, no Ranger has had more than four in a season. It's not just a Rangers thing. Roy Halladay led the majors last year with nine complete games.

HOLD

You know how to tell if a statistic is lousy? When there's no clear definition. It's not an official MLB statistic, but a hold is a poor man's save. A pitcher enters in a save situation, gets an out and leaves the game with his team still in the lead. That's the STATS Inc. definition. According to another statistics service, an out doesn't even need to be recorded.

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