Eddie Sefko

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As you've probably noticed, we here at the newsletter are in the overreaction business. And business is booming. Eighty-two times a season, baby.

One game, the Mavericks look great and beat the ever-lovin' stuffings out of Toronto or Houston. The next game, they can't do anything unless Dirk Nowitzki does it for them.

The only constant seems to be that they always are fighting from behind. They have led after the first quarter just twice in eight games.

If the Mavericks can figure out a way to fix that, they'll be fine, especially when you look at the schedule coming up. Of their next 11 games starting Friday against Minnesota, six are against the Eastern Conference and three others are against West teams that did not make the playoffs last season.

It's time to make hay while the sun shines.

If not, we'll be overreacting in a bad way a whole lot in the next few newsletters.

Q: Am I right that the final year for Erick Dampier is guaranteed if he averages more than 30 minutes in the 70 games he plays the most minutes? If so, he is well on his way by what I can tell. In eight games, if you take out his two low games as a way to compensate for the twelve he will get to drop, then he is averaging 31 minutes a game. It's really hard to argue with how hard he is working his butt off and contributing. It really smells like a contract year uptick.

Matthew

SEFKO: Well, that's one way to look at it. The other way to look at it is that he's played eight games and in three of them, he's played 18 minutes. In the other five, he's averaging 31.

Extrapolated (fancy word, huh?) over 80 games, that means he's going to have 30 games in which he plays 18 minutes. That will drag his minutes per game down to where he has no chance of reaching 30 per game.

As mentioned in the paper the other day, there is no way he'll reach this minutes incentive to trigger the final year of his deal. The Mavericks value that cap space too much and, besides, they figure to be able to trade him after the season before his deal runs out if a team gets desperate to receive something in return for a fleeing free agent.

Q: Has a sixth man ever been an All-Star?

Susan

SEFKO: Absolutely. Ricky Pierce was an All-Star in 1990-91 and started only two games out of the 78 he played for Milwaukee and Seattle. Aside from John Havlicek, Pierce and Vinnie Johnson remain the sixth-man standards by which all others are judged.

Perhaps Jason Terry and Manu Ginobili will gain that status if they continue to come off the bench for a few more years.

Q: Is this the most talented team Dirk, Kidd and Carlisle have ever played with or coached?

Kevin Porter

SEFKO: You could make the argument that the athletes Kidd had in New Jersey (a healthier Kenyon Martin, Richard Jefferson, Kerry Kittles, Rodney Rogers) were superior to what the Mavericks have now.

But if you're talking about pure talent, the Mavericks have it in abundance. It's largely older talent. Jason Kidd isn't what he once was, although it's hard to see much slippage on the defensive end the way he's played Ginobili and Aaron Brooks in the last two games.

Dirk's still going strong and Shawn Marion can still get to the rim in a heartbeat, although finishing is no longer a guarantee.

For Carlisle, he had a super team in Detroit with Chauncey Billups, Clifford Robinson, Ben Wallace and Rip Hamilton.

Not sure I could put this team above that one for pure, overall ability that still had some youth to it. That one was really good.

But this one is on a similar level.

I guess that's my way of saying I can't really differentiate from team to team. Yes, I'm dodging this question.

Q: All I've heard is how stacked the Mavericks are. Is this just wishful thinking again? Will it translate into a successful postseason? Yes, I'm asking you to predict the future. Isn't that why you get the big bucks?

Mary

SEFKO: Mary, I'm here for you. Unlike our long-lost pal D-Moore, I indeed can see the future.

For instance, I know that the next American Express bill in my mailbox is going to be a monster.

And I know the pork chops at J.D. Hoyt's in Minneapolis are going to be spectacular.

I also know that these Mavericks are going to be very good come postseason. Possibly even Western Conference finals good.

I confess I'm a little less confident about the last glimpse into the future than I am about the first two.

Q: I can't stop thinking about the Hornets' game. If my math is correct, the chances of a 74 percent free throw shooter like Jet missing, followed by an 84 percent shooter like J.J. Barea missing twice are less than 1 in 100. In baseball, I've heard it said that most teams win 50 games by two runs or more and lose 50 by two runs or more. It's the other 62 games that make the team. Is there a similar correlation in the NBA?

Damon S.

SEFKO: My head hurts from all those numbers. My fingers hurt from typing them.

But for the sake of answering a meandering question, I'd say that most NBA teams win 10 games by 10 or more points and lose 10 games by 10 or more points.

It's the other 62 that matter. And some of them will be double-figure wins or losses, too.

How's that for scrunching numbers?

But because we're printing this question, I have a couple of things to say about that New Orleans game, even though it's old news by now. The Mavericks had hoped to foul Peja Stojakovic before he got that 3-pointer off. It didn't happen when Kidd got picked off and the switch didn't happen fast enough.

The other thing is, why not have Barea shoot the technical free throw? What are the odds he'd miss three in a row?

But those things are easy to pick out after the fact.

Let's move on.

Q: What's up with the Mavericks at point-blank range? I've never seen them so unable to convert the easiest shots. Do they need a sports psychologist? It's inexcusable.

SEFKO: They already have a sports psychologist.

The reason there are so many botched layups is because Marion and Kidd can get to the rim almost anytime they want and once they are there, it's human nature to figure that somebody is waiting for them.

Marion always is hitching and adjusting and flipping and finger-rolling and whatever else he can think of. We've already seen a couple games where those shots all went in.

There will be some when they don't, too.

Let's wait another week or two to get a better sample of all this.

Q: Are the Mavericks addressing their end-of-quarter defense? It seems like we constantly give away points at the buzzer.

Jeff O., Cincinnati

SEFKO: Couldn't agree with you more. If ever a team has been inadequate – and maybe a little snakebit – at the end of quarters, this is it.

Against San Antonio Wednesday, Kidd did all he could to front Manu Ginobili at the end of the second quarter. And still, Manu created a little space and rose up for a 3-pointer that, of course, swished.

End-of-quarter defense is a little different than defense the rest of the time. The clock is your ally. You can sometimes take a chance to deflect a ball away, eat up another second or two by pushing the dribbler away from the spot he wants or simply running a double-team at him.

If anything, I think the Mavericks are too cautious at playing defense late in the quarter. I'd take a few more chances and if the whistle blows, so be it.

Q: I'm from Manila, Philippines, and my question is how come, after his record-setting game against Utah, Dirk was not effective at New Orleans and even fouled out?

Regie G.

SEFKO: The guy was flat-out spent. That's what happens when you hoist about 900 pounds on your shoulders, which is how much the other Mavericks on the court weigh.

By the way, the Mavericks are now 6-16 in games when Nowitzki has fouled out. That's a remarkably low number for a guy in his 12th season.

Q: Don't you think a guy like Wally Szczerbiak will fit in great with the Mavs? Why no interest?

SEFKO: Great to hear from you, Mrs. Szczerbiak. Oh wait. That really was from a fellow named Avery D., in Dallas. But it reads like something from the Wally-Z family.

Hey, they could always use another shooter. But with the new defensive mantra of this team, I have a tough time seeing Szczerbiak coming in here and being prosperous. Matt Carroll already has the job nailed down that Wally would be in line for.