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Trading prospects can help a team such as the Dallas Stars
12:42 AM CST on Thursday, November 12, 2009
To show that we're either open to several ways of doing things or that we really have no conviction to sticking to our opinions, let's take the opposite look from what we talked about in last week's newsletter.
Last week, we talked about the importance of being patient with your prospects. We used former Sharks defenseman Matt Carle as an example of a player who needed a few years and a couple of trades to finally find his stride.
This week, let's look at the team that gave up on Carle and see what happened to them.
That team, of course, is Thursday's opponent, the San Jose Sharks, who seem to be doing just fine without Carle. The Sharks a couple of years ago were a team built with young players, and they trusted those young players to develop. In fact, when the team went 49-23-10 for 108 points in 2007-08, they had a defensive group led by young 20-somethings Matt Carle, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Christian Ehrhoff and a couple of veterans in Craig Rivet and Brian Campbell.
But after that group was beaten by the Stars in the second round of the 2008 playoffs, GM Doug Wilson let Campbell walk in free agency, traded Rivet and swapped Carle to Tampa Bay for Dan Boyle. He used the salary space to sign Rob Blake as a free agent, and the Sharks were even better in 2008-09. He then acquired veteran Kent Huskins and moved Ehrhoff to Vancouver.
That opened space for rookie Jason Demers, and now the entire defense has changed within a couple of years.
If you watched the Sharks series with the Stars in 2008, Campbell was OK, and Carle and Ehrhoff were clearly part of the problem. So Wilson made some shrewd assessments and then some significant improvements.
Clearly, Carle, Ehrhoff and Campbell all had potential. Clearly, they are playing pretty well on new teams. But San Jose also is playing better as a team with Boyle, Blake, Huskins and Demers.
So should the Stars ponder changes to their young defense? Should they be on the lookout for a player like Boyle, 33, who is a proven puck mover? Do they need a veteran presence like Blake, who at 39 still makes the right decisions? Is there a player like Demers, 21, ready to step up for the Stars (like maybe Ivan Vishnevskiy or Philip Larsen)?
There are several ways to make the Stars stronger on defense. Can this team learn anything from how its Pacific Division rival went about its changes? It's something worth discussing as you tune into a late game from the West Coast.
On to your questions:
Q: I noticed the other night that the Stars are not using Tom Hick's plane. Is there any word about it? Is he trying to sell it? How is the team "getting around"
Chris
HEIKA: From what I have been told, the Rangers/Stars plane is simply down for maintenance right now. The Stars are traveling on charters, as they did before Hicks bought the team plane.
Q: Just a quick note to let you know that I enjoy and appreciate your coverage of the Stars, especially the human interest information that helps to know the players better. All of the exciting, young talent has renewed my following of the Stars.
Larry
HEIKA: Thanks Larry, that's really appreciated at a time like this. I'm not sure why, but there is a very vocal group of Stars fans who want results and want them now. I understand the frustration of the past Stars teams and their playoff failures. I understand the frustration of a new coach and a new system and the mistakes being made. But this team has done a pretty good job for being pretty young and for being pretty cheap. Mistakes are going to be made, and there is a process of growing with a young group of players. That's just the way it goes sometimes. We'll see how long the Stars stay patient and upbeat.
Q: How does the NHL intend to curtail "dirty plays" when the same cast of characters are punished every time and everyone else gets a slap on the wrist? Doesn't that just tell the rest of the players that you can make dirty plays as long as you don't have a pre-existing reputation for dirty play?
Casey
HEIKA: It's actually a really good point you make, Casey. The NHL's supplementary discipline program is one based heavily on the injury that results from the hit and the history of the player who delivers the hit. While those two situations are important, they hardly tell the whole story. It's a fine line, and one that has the GMs split right now. There are some who want harsher suspensions with automatic penalties for hits to the head (penalties that are imposed no matter what your past record or the injury to the player might be). Others say that system will cause high-level players to miss too many games – and that will cost the teams and league fan support and money.
As such, we get a compromise system where the league typically only chooses to put the hammer down on fringe players in hopes of sending a message to everyone. It is what it is, and I think it will remain this way, so you almost just have to roll with it and realize that's how the NHL wants it.
Q: How are negotiations with James Neal, Steve Ott and Nicklas Grossman going? What do you think Neal will demand? I really like the kid, but he seems like a guy who wants to get paid.
Austin, Wichita Falls
HEIKA: I think all are ongoing but quietly and could wait until the summer. I think Steve Ott is pretty much at the level he should be. He will make $1.425 million this season, and he had a career year numbers-wise last season. I think with Brenden Morrow healthy this year and younger wingers taking minutes on the top line, Ott's numbers will probably drop. Alex Burrows is in at $2 million per season, and should have better numbers than Ott by the end of the year, so I think Ott is sort of slotted about right. Grossman, I believe, is arbitration-eligible, and that could definitely create a situation where he can ask for a big raise. He is making $1 million this season, and Trevor Daley is at $2.3 million, so I can see his agent looking for something near Daley's level. That will be an interesting negotiation, because Grossman's impact isn't really measured in stats.
Neal will be the tough one. He is ending his rookie deal at $720,000, and clearly deserves a raise, but he doesn't have arbitration rights and will have to wait on a restricted free-agent contract offer to really up that level. Brandon Dubinsky tried to wait out the Rangers and ended up signing a two-year deal for $1.85 million a season. Loui Eriksson's second contract with the Stars was for an average of $1.6 million. My guess is that's the kind of offer Neal will receive – a two-year deal for about $1.6 million to $2 million per season. While the Stars could lose him to restricted free-agent offer sheet, my guess is they will find a way to work this out before it gets to there. I would think Neal's big-money, long-term deal still is a couple of years away.
Q: What is your opinion on the NHL buying the Phoenix Coyotes? What is the next step for the NHL in this process? I am just interested to see what happens, because if they move, it could potentially change the divisional alignment.
Chris
HEIKA: The first goal for the NHL is to find local ownership and keep the Coyotes where they are. My guess is that's what they'll do and see if they can make this work in a growing area to the far west of Phoenix. That said, there are viable markets that want NHL teams right now. Hamilton, Ontario, and Winnipeg, Manitoba, both would like to get teams. Las Vegas and Kansas City, Mo., also are interested. You would think Seattle might be a perfect place for the NHL to settle with the Sonics now moved. So my guess is that this is all up in the air, and we have no idea how it will affect where teams are. I do believe the NHL has some serious financial problems, but I also believe it wants to keep teams where they are. Just about every one of these teams in a tough situation has a fairly new building with a fairly long lease.
Q: What do you feel are the reasons for the Stars' road success this year? And why hasn't that success been duplicated at home?
Brian, Nashville, TN
HEIKA: Those are two good questions. My guess is the Stars have been able to turn off their brains a little more on the road and just play simple hockey. The team at home gets its choice for matchups on line changes, and I think coaches and players get wrapped up in that stuff. When you don't have control (on the road), I think you just put your head down and play. This will be a really tough road trip, so we'll see how the Stars respond.
Q: Now that the Allen Americans have begun play in the CHL, how do you think the affiliation with the Stars will help? Do you think that it would be a wise move if the Texas Brahmas, who are the defending CHL champions, pursued such an affiliation with a team at a higher level?
Brad B.
HEIKA: I think the Americans did this more for PR than anything, but it is nice to have an affiliation with an NHL team. The problem for the Americans is the Stars are sending their first-level prospects to the AHL (Texas Stars) and their second-level prospects to the ECHL (Idaho Steelheads), so you are a bit down the food chain if you are playing in the CHL. That said, it would be great to have some sort of connection with an AHL team. That would be a good plan for the Brahmas if they could hook up with teams in San Antonio and Houston.
Q: I've been feeling very uncomfortable with Fabian Brunnstrom lately. It's really frustrating to watch him play, because sometimes he just floats along, but other times these flashes of real talent come out of nowhere and he surprises everyone. Will he ever be more than a third-liner? How much patience will the Stars have in letting him fulfill his potential? I'm just afraid that if he is traded, it will be somewhere like Detroit, where he may flourish.
John
HEIKA: The problem with Brunnstrom is I believe he would be better served to play in a scoring position on a line with fellow skilled players. I just don't see that happening in Dallas, where Morrow, Eriksson, Benn and Neal seem to have the wings covered. That said, I think Brunnstrom has talent and can be an important part of the team. I also think he could be an important trade chip later if the Stars are looking for a defenseman or a right-handed right wing.
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