Tim Cowlishaw

Archive | Blog | E-mail

After tossing his 55-foot change-up to Albert Pujols before Tuesday's Major League Baseball All-Star Game, President Barack Obama spoke these words in the second inning of the Fox broadcast:

"What's been interesting about baseball, other than the Dodgers playing terrific ball, is there's a lot of parity. Which I think is terrific. Everybody around the country has a little hope for their team."

Obama went on to exclude the Nationals. But was he correct about the rest?

Is the game that he referred to as our national pastime – which lost that ranking to the NFL about 40 years ago – really one that offers parity?

The correct answer, for the most part, is: Yes.

Baseball has a reputation for being the game run by payrolls. Of our major sports, it's the only one lacking a salary cap. The New York Yankees will pay their players more than four times the amount that Florida, San Diego or Pittsburgh will pay theirs in 2009.

Although disparities exist in other sports, it's nowhere close to that extreme.

Because of this, I know any number of people – fans, friends, persons in the sports media business – who think that the World Series is simply up for sale while titles in other sports are truly up for grabs.

The evidence says that's not even close to being true.

Getting back to Obama's suggestion that maybe fans of every team other than Washington's have a shot – I'd say it's more like 20 out of 30 than 29 out of 30.

Going into Saturday's games, as the season is just past the midway point, 20 teams were either within 5 ½ games of first place in their division or five games within first place in their league's wild-card chase.

With two-thirds of the league's teams still in play at a point in the season in which injuries have taken a toll, I would call that parity.

With eight different World Series winners the last nine seasons representing all six major league divisions, I would call that parity.

It's not something you find in the NFL or NBA, to be sure.

The NFL season doesn't begin for nearly two months. There are 20 teams we can eliminate from Lombardi Trophy contention right now.

Here are the 12 teams that can win the Super Bowl, starting with the NFC – New York Giants, Philadelphia, Dallas, Carolina, Atlanta, Arizona, New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Tennessee, San Diego.

Seriously, who else even needs to be considered?

Miami just because the Dolphins made the playoffs last year? Look at their roster.

Minnesota because Brett Favre will be suiting up in two weeks? Don't think so.

And the NFL is wide-open compared with the NBA.

It's a shame that wagering in this space, even for the sake of charity, is not permitted. Otherwise, I would gladly give you 80 percent of the field and take my chances with the Lakers, Nuggets, Spurs and the Cavaliers, Celtics and Magic in 2010.

Take the other 24. Please.

True upsets, such as the Miami Heat winning it all in 2006, come along about once every 20 years in the NBA. Things get a little crazier in the NFL but not too often.

Baseball?

Wild-card teams were World Series winners in 2002, 2003 and 2004. In 2006, St. Louis – the playoff team with the fewest regular season wins (83) by five – won it all.

That's why when we're talking about 20 teams with a shot at the postseason, we're talking about 20 teams with a shot at advancing and really doing something in the playoffs. Baseball is not a sport in which the World Series is dominated by teams with the most wins or the ones with home-field advantage.

And while payroll is a factor, it's by no means the entire story.

The two National League teams with the highest payrolls are the Mets and the Cubs. New York, hit by injuries, is going nowhere, while Chicago is fighting four other teams for the top spot in a crowded Central Division race.

The big payroll teams are faring much better in the American League. And yet, Texas, Minnesota and Tampa Bay, last year's AL champion, remain very much alive in the playoff chase despite having payrolls that rank in their league's bottom five.

The bottom line?

The pitch for baseball parity Obama made in the broadcast booth at Busch Stadium was far better than the one he delivered to Pujols.